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In the early hours of November 6, 2024, US local time, Republican presidential candidate and former President Trump spoke at the Palm Beach County Convention Center in Florida, announcing his victory in the 2024 presidential election.
As is well known, Trump's core philosophy in office is 'America First, America Above All', and among the nine major policies he advocates, import and export trade is explicitly mentioned, with comprehensive tariffs imposed on Chinese goods.
On November 8, 2016, Trump defeated Hillary Clinton to become the 45th President of the United States; in March 2018, the US government announced additional tariffs on imported steel and aluminum products, beginning the friction in China-US trade, which quickly expanded to the full range of fields including trade, technology, finance, diplomacy, geopolitics, international public opinion and international rules.
On the day Trump won the election, as of 18:30 Beijing time, US stock index futures for the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones had risen 2.35%, 1.81% and 2.91% respectively. In European stock markets shortly after opening, apart from Denmark and Spain, the rest rose to varying degrees, with the Russian market surging 3.33% and Sweden, Switzerland, France and the UK all gaining more than 1%. In Asia-Pacific markets, India, Singapore, Vietnam and Japan rose between 0.6% and 2.52%.
In contrast, the bulk commodity market fell across the board. New York gold dropped 0.46%, at one point testing the USD 2,700 mark; New York silver fell 1.03%, with an intraday drop of as much as 3.7%; New York crude oil fell 1.42%, testing the USD 70 mark; US soybeans lost the USD 1,000 mark, down 1.54%; and LME copper plunged 2.23%, its largest single-day drop in two months.
Non-ferrous metals: in the 2018 trade war, Trump advocated raising taxes abroad and cutting them at home; the US economy was strong, the dollar was strong, the fiscal deficit widened and he opposed new energy — all of which were unfavorable to the consumption and prices of industrial goods. This year's problem for non-ferrous metals lies in supply; next year the supply problem will ease, and combined with the unfavorability of Trump's coming to power for the global economy and for the promotion of new energy, the pressure on the non-ferrous market will be more evident.
In the electric vehicle sector: Trump said tariffs would be raised to 200%, and that imports of necessities in textiles, electronics and other fields would be gradually halted, which will be unfavorable to non-ferrous metal consumption.
Trump's policies of cutting taxes at home and raising tariffs abroad are bullish for the dollar in the short term and will put pressure on precious metals; in addition, as the US election is settled and risk-aversion sentiment gradually clears, precious metals, after accumulating consecutive gains, also have room for further correction.
From the policy side, Trump stated early in his campaign that if elected he would impose additional tariffs on imported goods, especially Chinese goods at a rate as high as 60%, so future US policy may have a certain impact on China's indirect exports of ferrous metals.
China's main products involving indirect steel exports include ships, automobiles, containers, agricultural machinery, construction machinery, home appliances, elevators and steel structures.
According to customs statistics, from January to October 2024 China exported 91.893 million tonnes of steel, up 23.3% year on year, of which October exports were 11.182 million tonnes, up 85.1% year on year. In addition, from January to September 2024 China exported 80.711 million tonnes of steel, up 21.2% year on year.
Therefore, changes in overseas steel exports and exports of manufactured finished goods may have a considerable impact on steel demand. After Trump takes office, the future US political landscape may have a marked influence on China's export situation.
Gold prices under short-term pressure: a research report by China Galaxy Securities notes that after Trump's election as US President, gold prices may come under short-term pressure. This is mainly because Trump's policies may push up inflationary pressure, and gold is usually regarded as a safe-haven asset, so rising inflation may reduce gold's appeal.
Impact on industrial metals and energy metals: industrial metals may be neutrally affected under Trump's policies, while energy metals may face bearish pressure. This is mainly because Trump's policies may aggravate inflation but have little impact on demand for industrial metals.
Revaluation of rare metals: some rare metals may be revalued as the market expects them to become countermeasures in China-US trade friction. Rare metal varieties in which China has global competitive advantages, such as rare earth magnetic materials, tungsten, germanium and gallium, may benefit.
Lithium mining stocks rise: although Trump opposes new energy, in this election Musk went all in on Trump, and after the election Tesla's share price surged, driving gains in the lithium battery sector's stock market;
Impact on non-ferrous metal demand: the Trump administration emphasizes 'America First' and the return of manufacturing, which supports demand for raw materials such as non-ferrous metals, especially in infrastructure construction. However, policies such as trade protectionism and additional tariffs may increase global trade friction, which in turn affects demand expectations for non-ferrous metals.
Impact of inflation and monetary policy: Trump pursues large-scale tax cuts and a weaker dollar, which may lead to a rebound in inflation and a stronger financial attribute for commodities, forming a positive for the non-ferrous metals market.
Looking at Jin'ang Overseas Investment's own situation, the company mainly deals in minerals such as nickel, copper, lithium, gold, zinc and tantalum-niobium, holds mining rights in Africa, and has autonomy across the entire chain of capital, resources, warehousing, logistics and shipping.
Taking the nickel mine put into production by Jin'ang Overseas Investment as an example, nickel ore can be divided into three grades: extra-rich ore (Ni ≥ 3%), rich ore (1% ≤ Ni ≤ 3%) and lean ore (0.3% ≤ Ni ≤ 1%). The nickel ore Jin'ang Overseas Investment currently holds in Africa reaches a grade of 4%, which falls within the extra-rich ore grade. Therefore, whether Trump's coming to power is positive or negative for non-ferrous metals, Jin'ang Overseas Investment will not be greatly adversely affected thanks to its own hard strength.
At present, Jin'ang Overseas Investment continues to increase its mineral investment and construction in Africa, which fully reflects its own strength while also demonstrating ample confidence in the future market.
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